05/01/12

  12:32:08 pm by Dr. Helfman, Categories: News

Greetings!

Dr. Helfman sends his best.  Due to his declining health, he has been unable to follow racing as he has in the past.  However, his tried and true handicapping software will be used into the future to give insight to horse players everywhere.

09/25/11

  04:19:25 am by Dr. Helfman, Categories: News

One of the most important races of the summer is the Travers Stakes. Often on the day of a huge Stakes race,one worth $1,000.000 purse, the best trainers and jockeys are present. Under these circumstances the Power number is a good play.

The Power picks for the Travers were 1-8-2-9. The 9-2 exacta paid $78 and the 9-2-8 tri paid $1,312.00. The#9 horse(Stay Thirsty) was the favorite going off at 2.4 to 1. The #2 horse(Rattlesnake Bridge) went off at 14.1 to 1, and the #8 horse(J.W.Blue) went off at 32.75 to 1. That is why the tri paid so well even though the favorite won.

Interesting in the Predict system there were 6 horses above the danger line and the back horse(the come from behind horse) was the #8 horse who came in 3rd beaten by less than 3 lengths.

This was one of the only years that we were shut out in the triple crown but we more than made up for it in the Travers.

  04:18:37 am by Dr. Helfman, Categories: News

The two most important pre Derby races in April are the Woods and the Santa Anita Derby. The Woods Memorial was the 10th race at Aqueduct. It was for 3 year olds 9 furlongs on the dirt, no sex restrictions, Grade 1 Stake Hcp, purse $1,000,000. The Gold picked 5-2-4-6. The 2-4 exacta paid $158.00. The 2-4-5 tri paid $183.00. The #5 horse was Uncle Mo, one of the pre Derby favorites who ran third. He was bet down to 1/5 while the winner #2 (Toby's Corner) went off at 8/1 and the place horse #4 (Arthur's Tale) was backed at 12/1. This explains why such a robust exacta return and a low tri.

The Santa Anita Derby was the 10th race at Santa Anita. It was also for 3 year olds, at 9 furlongs on the dirt, no sex restrictions, Grade 1 Stakes HCP, purse $1,000,000. The Gold picked 10-3-5-6. The 6-5 exacta paid $227.20 and the 6-5-3 tri paid $1,229.60. The #6 horse(Midnight Interlude) was 20/1. The #5 horse(Comma To The Top) was 5/1 and the show horse #3(Mr. Commons) was 8/1.

Both of these crucial races are good examples of why we mainly concentrate on the exactas and tri's. At any rate this is a great start to the next month right up to the Derby.

  04:17:57 am by Dr. Helfman, Categories: News

When Keeneland opens it's spring meet, it means Kentucky Derby day is one month away. No matter how old I am or how sick I get, the excitement starts to build. Also it means the opening of Churchill Downs is just three weeks away, my favorite track and one the system usually kills the first week of the meet.

Since they put a synthetic track at Keeneland years ago, it has put some damper on my enthusiasm but on opening day the Power numbers were absolutely terrific. I have noticed that the first few days on a synthetic track when the horses come from all over the country, the Power numbers do exceptionally well the first week.

Race 2: 6 furlogs on A/W, 4 years old and up, Mares and Fillies, Claiming. Power Numbers picked 4-2-1-5. The 5-1 exacta paid $21.

Race 3: 8.5 furlongs on A/W, 4 years old and up, No sex restrictions, Specia Maiden. Power Numbers picked 8-3-5-2. The 5-8 exacta paid $24.60 and the 8-5-2 tri paid $64.40.

Race 5: One mile on the Turf, 4 years old and up, Mares and Fillies, Allowance. Power Numbers picked 8-9-6-11. The 9-6 exacta paid $125.60. The 9-6-11 tri paid $3,019,20!! And just for kickers the 9-6-11-8 super paid $24,744.60!!!

Race 1 as uasual at Keeneland was all first time starters so it was no play. 9 races X $36 per race = $324.00 Total investment. Total winnings $1,627.40 with a net win of $1302.40. Not bad!

So hopefully this sets the stage for the rest of Keenland and the upcoming Churchill meets. Bring on the DERBY!!

  04:17:15 am by Dr. Helfman, Categories: News

For years a good day at the track is the day prior to the Super Bowl. It is always on a Saturday of course. I have been to 5 Super Bowls personally, and everytime I have gone to the track the day before. Two were in Miami, so that meant a day at Gulfstream. One was at Los Angeles, so I went to Santa Anita. Traditionally Saturday is a good day to go to any track because the card has the best horses because of the Allowance and Stake Races.

Tracks are in the buisness to make money and I figure on Super Bowl weekend bettors juices are flowing and they are looking for action. On Sunday of the Super Bowl, I have found not a good time to go to the races. Usually all tracks have an early post time; they know the bettors want to be home for the game. So that day I always feel rushed, so I stay away frm the races.

This year I am following Santa Anita closely. I think it is a pivotal meet. The future of California racing may depend on this meet. We have been excited about the return to the dirt track. No true handicapper likes the artificial surfaces.

So Febuary 5th Santa Anita was the track of choice. As I said in previous posts, the exactas and tri's prices because of increased take out are down some. This means lower prices when the favorites come in but it doesn't affect the prices when the longshots come in(see previous post).

Saturday Feb 5th was a great day for our system. Playing the way we suggest the following results were:

Race 1- one mile and 1/8th on the dirt, Claiming, 4 years old and up, no sex restrictions.

The Gold picked 5-6-4-2. The 6-5 exacta paid $228.60. The 6-5-2 tri paid $1,602.20. This makes you winner for the day, no matter what happens. The winner was 20/1 on the morning line, the place horse was 1.6/1 on the morning line and the show horse was 8/1 morning line. Nice payoff, no more stress for the day.

Without going into details of each race we had the exacta in the second race, exacta and tri in the third race, exacta in the 7th and 9th race but the prices were low and we actually gave some of the profits back.

For the entire day betting $1 box's on the exacta and tri($36.00 per race) X 10= $360 investment. The return was $1031.60 and the net winnings was $671.60.

Thus again we had 5/10 exactas and 2/10 tris but came out a big winner. Again it was one big race that made our day but we had it. I wonder when the track executives are going to realize that taking more out of the pot doen't entice the bettors to empty their wallets. Oh well at least we now have a dirt track and as usual we hit the big one enough to make it worth while.

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This is the place to read Insights into using Dr. Helfman's Helfman Formula For Windows software. These posts contain Dr. Helfman's observations on the software and the racing conditions which can vary the formula you use to best handicap thoroughbred horse racing. DISCLAIMER As usual, this is a handicapping system not a betting system. This is not to encourage wagering. No Handicapping system in the world can promise, warranty, or guarantee anything in writing. Elements of chance, weather, the horses's health, and disposition on a given race day make any kind of promise, warranty, or guarantee impossible. Those elements also make thoroughbred racing a thrilling sport, so you could not remove the former, without killing the latter. Nor can any author control how accurately and carefully individual horseplayers will make use of it. Ed

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